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How it looks after US Powerful Carrier Departure?

Analytics - 14 day ago

The Departure Of U.S. aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman

South Eye | Analysis - Exclusive

The departure of the U.S. aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman from the Red Sea and its arrival in Greece after two months of military operations carries significant strategic implications that go beyond a simple redeployment. This carrier played a crucial role in U.S. operations in the region, targeting both the Houthis in Yemen and ISIS in Somalia, making its departure a key indicator of shifting U.S. military and political calculations.

Since late 2023, the Houthis have escalated their attacks on commercial and military vessels in the Red Sea, citing Israeli military operations in Gaza and receiving clear support from Iran. This escalation led to direct U.S. and British intervention through a series of air and missile strikes on Houthi positions. However, these attacks were not sufficient to completely eliminate the threat. Instead, they pushed the Houthis to adopt more advanced tactics, such as using long-range drones and ballistic missiles against maritime targets.

Over the past two months, the Truman played a key role in carrying out these strikes, and its presence in the region was a major factor in maintaining pressure on the Houthis while sending a clear deterrence message to Iran and its allies. However, the U.S. understands that keeping an aircraft carrier in a region like the Red Sea for an extended period is logistically costly and may not be the most effective means of countering the Houthi threat.

The decision to withdraw the Truman is likely linked to several factors. The first is the belief that recent strikes have successfully reduced the Houthis' ability to launch large-scale attacks, at least for now. This does not mean the Houthis have ceased their operations entirely, but there may be a temporary tactical pause for rearmament or strategy adjustments.

Second, there may be unannounced diplomatic understandings that prompted Washington to scale back its direct military presence in the Red Sea. While the U.S. does not usually disclose its diplomatic backchannels, regional and international pressures may have played a role in achieving a temporary de-escalation. It is possible that indirect messages were conveyed from Tehran or through regional mediators suggesting that Houthi attacks would decrease in exchange for a reduction in the U.S. military presence.

Third, force redistribution is another key factor. The Red Sea is not the only theater where the U.S. military is needed. With rising tensions in Eastern Europe due to the war in Ukraine and ongoing challenges in the Indo-Pacific region with China, the Pentagon may have decided that it is time to redeploy some combat units to other areas of higher strategic importance at this stage.

However, this does not mean that the U.S. is abandoning the region or that it perceives the Houthi threat as completely neutralized. Washington is likely to rely on alternative methods to contain the threat, such as enhancing air defenses for naval and commercial vessels, increasing the use of drones, and intensifying intelligence operations to track Houthi movements and preempt their attacks.

Iran, in turn, will view the Truman’s departure as a sign that its strategy of gradually exhausting the U.S. military presence in the region without direct confrontation has been successful. This will likely encourage Tehran to continue supporting the Houthis with more advanced military technology and possibly push them toward a renewed escalation at a time of Iran’s choosing, based on regional and international developments.

For Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Washington’s decision may raise growing concerns about the reliability of U.S. protection. This could push them to invest further in strengthening their own defensive capabilities and reconsider the nature of their international alliances. They may explore closer ties with other global powers, such as China and Russia, to ensure a more balanced strategic position.

In the short term, the Red Sea may witness relative calm, but in the long run, the Truman’s departure could pave the way for renewed escalation, whether by the Houthis or by other actors seeking to test Washington’s commitment to securing maritime navigation in the region. This keeps the situation highly unpredictable, with the Red Sea remaining an open conflict zone that could see sudden developments at any moment.

Note: The USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) is a Nimitz-class nuclear-powered aircraft carrier in the United States Navy. It was commissioned on July 25, 1998, and named after the 33rd U.S. President, Harry S. Truman. Built at Newport News Shipbuilding, the carrier has played a significant role in U.S. military operations worldwide.

Over the years, Truman has been deployed in multiple conflicts, including operations in the Middle East, Afghanistan, and against ISIS. It has also participated in NATO exercises and provided deterrence in regions of strategic interest. With its ability to carry over 75 aircraft, including F/A-18 Super Hornets, electronic warfare planes, and surveillance aircraft, the carrier remains a key component of U.S. naval power projection.