Why the South Sees Independence is a path for Peace in Yemen

Analytics - 1 month ago

The Political Challenges Facing the South Amid Proposed Solutions for Yemen

South Eye | Analysis - Exclusive

Amid Yemen's complex crisis, one of the most intricate conflicts in the region, attention turns to the political solutions proposed to reshape the state and achieve stability. However, for the South, these solutions raise many questions, particularly regarding political justice and fair representation. The South, having suffered decades of marginalization, sees that any political settlement based on current foundations will not be fair and will keep it under northern dominance, whether through political influence or the exploitation of religious forces and their impact on the electoral landscape.

The first major issue is the demographic imbalance between the North and the South. The North has a larger population, which means that any national elections based on numerical democracy will inevitably result in northern dominance over decision-making centers. This situation poses a direct threat to the aspirations of Southerners to achieve fair representation that respects their political history and geographic uniqueness. Under these conditions, elections cannot be considered a truly democratic tool if the outcome is already predetermined by an unequal demographic distribution.

Additionally, religious parties complicate the scene further. Parties such as Islah and political Salafist movements hold significant influence in the North and enjoy clear regional support, giving them immense power that translates into political and popular influence. These parties, which leverage religion for political gain, will hold significant sway in any future elections. Given their political discourse, which leans toward centralization, they will represent a major obstacle to any Southern project aiming for self-rule or a fair federal reconstruction of the state.

What exacerbates Southern fears is that these religious parties are often used as tools of influence by regional actors, which finds in supporting religious forces a means to safeguard Thier strategic interests. This regional backing undermines any possibility of achieving real political balance in Yemen and leaves the South vulnerable to ongoing pressures that hinder its political ambitions.

In light of these challenges, fundamental questions arise about the shape of the future state. Will the South remain part of a centralized state, where all levers of power are managed from Sana’a? Or will there be a consensus-based formula that grants the South administrative and political autonomy to preserve its interests? The experience of past decades has proven that the centralized state has failed to manage Yemen’s diversity and plurality, serving as a key driver of Southern marginalization and recurring conflicts.

Realistically, regional and international actors must recognize that any political settlement ignoring Southern demands will only reproduce the conflict in different forms. A fair solution must ensure Southerners' right to determine their own future, either through an independent state that restores their sovereignty or a federal system that grants them broad powers to manage their affairs free from northern dominance.

In this context, any political settlement must include international guarantees that bind Yemeni parties to implement agreements fairly, away from the language of force or dominance. Additionally, measures must be established to limit the influence of religious parties in political decisions, whether through banning parties based on religious foundations or adopting an electoral system that respects Southern particularities and minimizes foreign intervention in choosing their representatives.

The South possesses all the elements needed to build a successful and independent state. It enjoys immense economic resources, including oil wealth and strategic ports, while its geographic location grants it vital importance regionally and internationally. These elements form a solid foundation for building a sustainable political and economic model that contributes to regional stability.

Without genuine guarantees for restoration independent state, which existed before 1990, any solution will be only a temporary. The unity imposed by force did not achieve stability; instead, it led to destructive wars and systematic marginalization of the South. Thus, a return to the previous status quo is a necessary step to achieve justice and protect Southern interests.

Hence, there can be no real solution to the Yemeni crisis without addressing the Southern issue fundamentally. Ignoring this matter will keep the conflict unresolved and pave the way for new rounds of tension and violence. The South today faces major challenges, but it also holds real opportunities to fulfill its people’s aspirations. What is required is sincere political will from key stakeholders and international guarantees ensuring that Southern rights to determine their future are respected.