Georgia between Russian & EU Polarization

Analytics - 1 month ago

Updates on Georgia Recent Situation

South Eye | Analysis - Exclusive

Georgia is currently experiencing significant political turmoil following the recent inauguration of President Mikheil Kavelashvili. The election process has been marred by allegations of fraud and has sparked widespread protests in the capital, Tbilisi. Critics argue that the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party, led by pro-Russian oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, is steering the nation away from its European aspirations and towards authoritarianism.

The election of Kavelashvili, a former soccer player known for his ultranationalist views, was conducted by a college predominantly composed of GD members, with no opposition candidates participating. This process has been labeled a "parody" by outgoing President Salome Zourabichvili, who has called for new elections, citing a lack of legitimacy and fairness.

Public dissent has been growing over the past year, particularly after the adoption of a controversial foreign agents law and disputed parliamentary elections. The United States has imposed sanctions on Ivanishvili, accusing him of undermining Georgia’s democratic and Euro-Atlantic aspirations. Opposition parties have rejected the election results, boycotted parliament, and are demanding new elections. Despite a harsh police crackdown, public resentment against Georgian Dream persists, with increasing calls for resistance against the ruling party’s authoritarian measures.

The situation is further complicated by Georgia's geopolitical position. The ruling party's policies have raised concerns about the country's aspirations for EU membership. The EU has suspended Georgia's accession talks, exacerbating opposition and fueling protests. Critics argue that Georgian Dream has grown increasingly authoritarian and pro-Russian, evidenced by laws similar to those in Russia undermining freedoms.

The current unrest in Georgia reflects a broader struggle between pro-European and pro-Russian forces within the country. The outcome of this political crisis will significantly influence Georgia's future direction, determining whether it aligns more closely with Europe or moves towards increased autocracy and closer ties with Russia.

So what we should expect?

Yet we should admitted that Georgia’s political unrest represents a critical crossroads for the country’s future. The protests triggered by allegations of election fraud and dissatisfaction with the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party reveal deep fractures in Georgian society. The coming months will likely see intensified domestic and international maneuvering as various forces vie for control of the country's trajectory.

The opposition’s refusal to accept the recent election results signals prolonged political stalemates. Protests, which have already drawn significant public support, are expected to persist, particularly in urban centers like Tbilisi. With the opposition boycotting parliament, legislative deadlock could exacerbate tensions. Georgian Dream's response—whether through dialogue, reforms, or further crackdowns—will determine whether the unrest escalates or subsides.

The general public, particularly the younger, pro-European generation, may intensify demands for systemic change. Social media and civil society groups are playing an increasingly influential role in mobilizing dissent, making grassroots movements harder to suppress. However, GD’s ability to control media narratives and state institutions remains a significant counterforce.

Russia's potential role in the crisis cannot be ignored. Historically, Russia has sought to maintain influence in Georgia, especially since the 2008 war over South Ossetia and Abkhazia. A weakened or divided Georgia aligns with Moscow’s interests, as it disrupts the country’s Euro-Atlantic integration. Whether through direct interference or covert destabilization tactics, Russia may exploit the unrest to reinforce pro-Russian sentiment within Georgian institutions.

Conversely, the European Union and the United States are likely to increase pressure on GD to uphold democratic standards. Sanctions, diplomatic engagement, and support for opposition groups could follow if the ruling party is perceived as undermining democratic norms. However, the EU’s suspension of accession talks might inadvertently embolden pro-Russian factions, complicating Western influence.

Political instability will inevitably impact Georgia’s economy. Investor confidence may falter, and tourism—an important economic sector—could decline amid perceptions of unrest. Socially, prolonged protests and government crackdowns could deepen polarization, straining the country’s social fabric.
But, if Georgian Dream concedes to some demands—such as calling for new elections or adopting transparent electoral reforms—the situation could stabilize. However, this requires substantial political will from GD, which remains uncertain.

The most likely scenario is a continued impasse, with protests, police crackdowns, and a fragmented opposition struggling to unite. This could lead to gradual erosion of the ruling party’s authority but not an immediate resolution.

International actors, such as the EU or the U.S, might mediate the crisis, offering incentives or imposing conditions to steer Georgia back toward democratic processes. Such intervention could be effective but risks being perceived as foreign interference.

Should GD continue its perceived drift toward authoritarianism, Georgia might pivot closer to Russia, alienating pro-European factions and further polarizing society.

The situation in Georgia is fluid and multifaceted, but its resolution—or lack thereof—will profoundly shape not only the country’s democratic future but also its place in the geopolitical tug-of-war between East and West.