Riyadh Meeting

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Riyadh Meeting’s Outcomes & Impact

Analytics - 4 days ago

Ukraine and the World with Trump Administration 

South Eye | Analysis - Exclusive

The primary losers from U.S.-Russia rapprochement aimed at ending the Ukraine conflict would be China and Iran. As Riyadh hosting a groundbreaking meeting between Russia and the United States, the global geopolitical landscape is shifting toward a new phase of interactions especially following Donald Trump's return to the White House. A forward-looking analysis of this meeting’s outcomes cannot be separated from Trump's approach to international politics, which is characterized by a pragmatic, deal-making mentality that prioritizes economic benefits and grand bargains over the ideological policies that defined the previous Biden administration. Therefore, the implications of this meeting will take a different shape when viewed through the lens of a U.S. administration now led by Trump.

Since Trump’s return to office, American priorities have undergone a fundamental shift, with the Ukraine war emerging as one of the first issues to be reassessed. Trump has never been enthusiastic about supporting Kyiv without tangible returns. He firmly believes that Europe should take responsibility for its own defense rather than relying on American financial and military assistance. Consequently, the ongoing negotiations with Russia are likely to adopt a practical approach, aiming to end the conflict in a way that directly serves U.S. interests without concern for democratic ideals or Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

We are likely to see a settlement based on a grand bargain between the United States and Russia, where Trump would offer concessions that allow Russia to maintain influence over the territories it has occupied, in exchange for Moscow curbing China’s ambitions or providing significant economic compromises in the energy sector. This deal would align with Trump’s [Businessman] mentality, as he seeks clear, tangible gains that he can present to his domestic audience whether by reducing U.S. expenditures on the war or ensuring stable energy prices that benefit the American economy.

Under Biden, Zelensky was granted a blank check for war, but Trump will not follow the same approach. Ukraine will face mounting pressure from Washington to accept a settlement that halts the war, even if it means surrendering some territory to Russia. Trump views the conflict through a financial lens, and he will not allow Washington to continue hemorrhaging funds in a war that does not directly serve U.S. economic interests. Consequently, the current U.S. administration is likely to impose difficult choices on Kyiv, with the potential suspension of military aid being one of the tools used to coerce Zelensky into negotiating under revised terms.

Trump’s presidency means a decline in U.S. commitments to European security, pushing Europe to rethink its defense strategy. Countries like Germany and France may find themselves compelled to engage with Russia directly, rather than relying on Washington as an intermediary. This shift could lead to fractures within the European Union, with some nations advocating continued confrontation with Moscow despite its high costs, while others may favor a face-saving deal that brings an end to the conflict.

Moreover, nations heavily dependent on American military assistance such as Poland and the Baltic states could find themselves isolated should Washington disengage from the Ukraine war. A U.S. retreat would likely force Europe into greater self-reliance, with some governments seeking to increase military expenditures while others attempt to diplomatically reset relations with Russia to avoid further economic downturns.

For Russia, a U.S. withdrawal from Ukraine would provide greater strategic flexibility, but it would also necessitate a reassessment of its alliances. While Trump has signaled a willingness to engage with Moscow, he simultaneously views China as America’s primary adversary. This perspective could prompt efforts to undermine the Russian-Chinese partnership.

Should Trump offer Putin a deal that grants Russia implicit recognition of its territorial gains in Ukraine in exchange for weakening its ties with Beijing, Moscow may face a difficult choice especially given its increasing economic reliance on Chinese markets. A potential U.S.-Russia agreement could disrupt the existing geopolitical balance, pushing Russia into a more nuanced diplomatic position where it must navigate between its strategic partnership with China and the benefits of reducing tensions with Washington.

Iran, A Major Casualty of U.S.-Russia Negotiations

Iran is likely to be among the biggest losers if a new U.S.-Russia agreement materializes. Moscow may be willing to curtail its support for Tehran in exchange for economic incentives or sanction relief from the West. This could lead to significant shifts in Middle Eastern geopolitics, especially if Trump moves to intensify pressure on Iran in an attempt to renegotiate the nuclear deal under more stringent conditions.

For Iran, losing Russian backing would increase its regional isolation and potentially limit its ability to project power across the Middle East. Meanwhile, Gulf states particularly KSA may find itself in a stronger negotiating position, using its relationships with both Washington and Moscow to shape a new regional security architecture.

Russia, as a key player in global energy markets, will leverage its negotiations with Trump as a bargaining chip to enhance its economic standing. A potential rapprochement between Washington and Moscow could lead to greater stability in oil and gas prices, alleviating Europe’s energy crisis. However, it may also negatively impact other energy-producing nations that have benefited from market volatility throughout the conflict.

The extent of energy market fluctuations will depend on the specific terms of any U.S.-Russia agreement. If Trump secures concessions from Russia that ensure stable energy supplies at reasonable prices, this could reduce inflationary pressures in the West and bolster his domestic economic agenda. Conversely, if negotiations falter and tensions persist, energy markets could experience renewed volatility, affecting global economic stability.

Hence, the Riyadh meeting was a prelude to profound shifts in international politics. Under Trump’s leadership, the world is poised for a fundamental transformation in the management of major conflicts. The Ukraine war is unlikely to conclude through a decisive military victory but rather through a political settlement dictated by evolving U.S. priorities.

This new phase of diplomacy will likely redefine global power structures, where economic pragmatism and transactional politics outweigh ideological considerations. As the old saying goes, {One sees others through the lens of one’s own nature} . Trump views China, not Russia, as the primary adversary, in contrast to US' previous administrations strategic outlook.