Trump VS Harris

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Analysis on Trump Harris presidency impact on Southerners ambition to restore their independent State

Analytics - 15 day ago

Detailed analysis on how a Trump or Harris victory in the U.S election could impact Southern Yemen’s goals of restoring an independent state, drawing from historical, geopolitical, and policy trends:

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1. Trump Victory

A Trump win would likely reflect his administration’s focus on the U.S.’s immediate national security and economic interests. Trump has generally prioritized limited U.S. intervention abroad, preferring that regional allies lead on regional issues.

Potential Impacts on Southern Yemen

• Security Partnerships and Gulf Alignments:

  • Trump’s administration has historically viewed the Gulf, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as vital partners in countering Iran’s influence in the region. This security-driven view could indirectly support Southern Yemen, as the UAE has established close relationships with southern Yemeni forces, including the Southern Transitional Council (STC).
  • Trump’s policies could likely favor a continuation of UAE influence in Yemen’s south if it aligns with countering the Houthis and preventing Iranian proxies from gaining ground.

• Counter-Terrorism Focus:

  • Trump has taken a hardline stance on terrorism, which may extend to supporting any groups that actively combat terror networks like Al-Qaeda and counter Houthi influences. Southern Yemen’s forces could present themselves as capable allies, especially in securing strategic areas around the Gulf of Aden and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, to gain support.
  • This support, however, would likely be contingent upon the south demonstrating effective control over extremist threats.

• Limited Diplomatic Moves Toward Southern Recognition:

  • Although Trump might support Southern Yemen’s de facto control if it aligns with his broader security objectives, his administration has been less inclined to formally recognize secessionist movements. Trump’s preference is typically to allow allies to manage local conflicts without direct U.S. endorsement for independence, reducing the likelihood of outright U.S. support for Southern Yemen’s bid for recognition.
  • Nonetheless, if key Gulf allies advocate for Southern independence, Trump’s administration might be less opposed, especially if this aligns with isolating Iranian-backed groups.

Challenges and Risks for Southern Yemen:

• Trump’s unpredictability in foreign policy, combined with a transactional approach, means that support for Southern Yemen could be highly conditional. Any wavering Gulf support or internal instability within Southern Yemen could affect Trump’s stance.
• Southern Yemen may need to remain vigilant about its image and commitment to stability to avoid being seen as a volatile or overly ambitious partner, which could deter U.S. alignment under Trump.

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2. Harris Victory

A Harris victory would signal a shift toward a more progressive foreign policy with an emphasis on human rights, democratic governance, and humanitarian concerns. This approach would likely focus on resolving Yemen’s crisis as a whole, balancing humanitarian concerns with regional stability.

Potential Impacts on Southern Yemen

• Increased Emphasis on Unified Solutions:

  • Harris’s approach would probably focus on a negotiated, comprehensive peace process in Yemen, potentially urging for a federated solution that keeps Yemen united while addressing regional autonomy.
  • This could make it more challenging for the STC to gain support for complete independence, as the U.S. may prioritize maintaining a unified Yemen as a single-state solution to avoid further regional fragmentation.

• Humanitarian and Governance Conditions:

  • Southern Yemen’s leadership would likely need to demonstrate robust commitments to human rights and avoid any signs of authoritarian practices. Harris’s administration may view the governance practices in the south through a critical lens, emphasizing democratic standards and transparency.
  • Demonstrating a commitment to humanitarian values and showing readiness to participate in broader peace negotiations could be essential for gaining U.S. favor and possibly support.

• Possibilities for Civil Society Engagement:

  • Harris’s administration might be open to engaging with Southern Yemen through civil society channels, including organizations that promote media freedom, human rights, and local governance.
  • Southern leaders could capitalize on these channels by working with international organizations that align with U.S. values on democracy and governance, which could indirectly help the Southern cause gain attention and build support.

Challenges and Risks for Southern Yemen:

• The emphasis on diplomatic solutions could mean pressure on Southern Yemen to negotiate with northern forces or to accept federalization, which may not fully satisfy the independence ambitions of many southerners.
• Harris’s administration would likely discourage any unilateral moves toward independence that could undermine regional stability, potentially impacting Southern Yemen’s long-term aspirations unless aligned with broader peace goals.

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Conclusion and Strategic Recommendations for Southern Yemen

The paths Southern Yemen might consider under each administration could include the following strategies to navigate U.S. policy effectively:

1. Building Legitimacy and International Relationships: Regardless of who wins, Southern Yemen’s best approach would involve cultivating an image as a stable and self-governing region committed to human rights and counter-terrorism. Demonstrating effective governance can help in appealing to both administrations for indirect support.

2. Leveraging Gulf Relations:

   • With Trump: Southern Yemen can work closely with the UAE to secure support from the U.S. administration, ensuring their alignment in countering Iran and the Houthis.
   • With Harris: The STC should seek to align with humanitarian and democratic values, which could strengthen Southern Yemen’s position in gaining indirect recognition or sympathy from the U.S.

3. Engaging in Diplomatic Dialogues and Peace Initiatives:

   • With Trump: The STC can focus on positioning itself as a reliable security partner to maintain autonomy.
   • With Harris: The STC might need to show a willingness to participate in U.S.-led peace processes or a federated Yemen model, which could mean diplomatic compromise but might yield greater international legitimacy.

Ultimately, both administrations offer unique challenges and opportunities for Southern Yemen. With careful diplomatic and governance strategies, Southern Yemen could continue to build its path toward self-determination while managing relationships with a dynamic U.S. foreign policy landscape