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Analytics - منذ 11 يوم

Renewed Syrian conflict Amid Global Geopolitical Shifts

South Eye | Analysis - exclusive

The recent developments in Aleppo, where Syrian rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham have breached government-held areas, mark a pivotal shift in the dynamics of Syria's prolonged civil war. This sudden resurgence of militant activity comes against the backdrop of shifting global power structures and overlapping regional conflicts that are reshaping the international order.

The Syrian conflict has long been a microcosm of global power struggles. The renewed offensive in Aleppo highlights the fragility of the status quo established by the Assad regime with support from Russia and Iran. The breach of Aleppo, Syria's largest city and a symbolic stronghold, suggests a resurgence in anti-regime efforts that could destabilize the balance of power in the region.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s lightning assault underscores the persistence of resistance movements, despite years of setbacks. The group's ability to coordinate such a large-scale operation indicates continued external support, potentially from Gulf states or Western entities looking to counterbalance Iranian and Russian dominance in Syria.

Moreover, The conflict in Syria is deeply intertwined with the ongoing Ukraine war. Russia’s military commitment to Ukraine has stretched its resources, potentially weakening its ability to sustain Assad’s regime in Syria. Syrian opposition groups may perceive this as an opportune moment to capitalize on reduced Russian military presence and focus.

Additionally, Iran’s support for both Russia in Ukraine and Assad in Syria reflects its strategy to cement alliances against Western hegemony. Iranian drones and logistical support have been critical in both theaters, showcasing the transnational nature of these conflicts.

Furthermore, China’s growing influence in the Middle East further complicates the Syrian situation. Through its Belt and Road Initiative and diplomatic outreach, Beijing has positioned itself as a neutral arbiter in regional conflicts. However, its tacit alignment with Russia in global geopolitics suggests a nuanced role in Syria. While China officially calls for peace and stability, its strategic interest lies in maintaining access to Middle Eastern resources and countering Western influence.

Also, the parallel conflict between Hamas and Israel adds another layer of complexity. Iran’s support for Hamas showcases its broader strategy to challenge Israel and the U.S. simultaneously. The escalation in Gaza distracts global attention from Syria, potentially providing breathing room for Assad's regime to consolidate power. Conversely, it also serves as a rallying point for anti-Iranian coalitions, including Saudi Arabia, which has been recalibrating its stance toward both Iran and Israel.

In addition to the recent Saudi-Iran rapprochement, mediated by China, is being tested by these overlapping conflicts. While both nations seek to avoid direct confrontation, their support for opposing sides in Syria, South, and Gaza remains a significant source of tension. Saudi Arabia's tacit support for Syrian opposition factions aligns with its broader goal to counterbalance Iranian influence in the region.

These conflicts are symptomatic of a broader shift in the global balance of power. The U.S. and EU remain focused on Ukraine, limiting their direct involvement in Syria. This relative disengagement has created a vacuum, allowing regional powers like Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, as well as global actors like Russia and China, to assert greater influence.

Turkey’s role in supporting Syrian opposition factions further complicates the equation. As a NATO member, Turkey’s actions often diverge from Western objectives, reflecting its ambitions for regional dominance.

The renewed Syrian resistance, coupled with the intricate web of global and regional conflicts, signals a turbulent period ahead. The interplay between the Ukraine war, the Hamas-Israel conflict, and shifting alliances in the Middle East underscores the fragility of the current international order. Syria remains a critical arena where the outcomes of these broader power struggles will have profound implications for the future of global geopolitics.

This demonstrates that the Syrian conflict is far from being an isolated civil war. It is a reflection of global and regional rivalries, where the lines between local resistance, proxy battles, and international power plays are increasingly blurred. As the situation evolves, it will demand nuanced engagement from all stakeholders to prevent further destabilization.

So What's ahead?

The future of Syria remains precarious, with multiple forces vying for influence in a deeply fragmented landscape. The renewed offensives by Syrian opposition factions, such as those seen in Aleppo, are indicative of a possible shift in momentum after years of relative stagnation. Yet, the Assad regime's resilience, bolstered by longstanding support from Russia and Iran, should not be underestimated. Syria is at a crossroads, where the interplay of internal dynamics and external geopolitical interests will determine whether opposition groups can make meaningful advances or if Assad's regime will consolidate control further.

The recent offensive led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and reports of Syrian National Army factions capturing key sites such as Kuweires military airport highlight a newfound tactical coordination and adaptability among opposition groups. This resurgence is likely driven by the perceived weakening of regime forces, partly due to the redirection of Russian military resources toward Ukraine. Opposition factions may also be emboldened by covert support from regional powers such as Turkey, which has historically backed Syrian rebels to counter both Kurdish and regime influences.

However, the opposition remains divided along ideological and territorial lines. While groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham control significant areas in Idlib, others operate under Turkish influence or independently, making unified progress against the regime challenging. Without a cohesive strategy or sustained international backing, their gains may be short-lived.

Despite its numerous setbacks, meanwhile the Assad regime has demonstrated an uncanny ability to endure. Its survival has largely depended on robust support from Russia and Iran. While Russia's focus on Ukraine has diverted some resources, its military presence in Syria remains significant, with airpower and logistical support continuing to fortify Assad’s hold on key areas. Iran, too, has deepened its engagement, leveraging its network of militias to ensure the regime’s survival.

Domestically, the regime's ability to maintain control over urban centers like Damascus and its strategy of leveraging humanitarian aid distribution to maintain loyalty in key areas contribute to its resilience. However, economic woes, including rampant inflation and resource shortages, have strained its governance, leaving the door ajar for renewed resistance.

As known Turkey’s involvement in northern Syria will be pivotal. While Ankara has shifted its focus toward reconciling with Damascus to address its Kurdish concerns, it continues to support opposition factions in certain areas. This dual strategy could either facilitate negotiations or prolong the conflict, depending on Ankara’s priorities.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s and the UAE’s rapprochement with Syria signals a recalibration of their regional strategies. Their engagement, though limited, may provide Assad with economic lifelines, further solidifying his control. However, these Gulf states are unlikely to fully embrace Assad without meaningful concessions, especially as they balance relations with Western allies.

The international community remains largely disengaged from direct intervention, focusing instead on humanitarian aid and diplomatic efforts to sustain a fragile ceasefire. The U.S. and EU, preoccupied with the Ukraine war, have deprioritized Syria, limiting their role to sanctions and rhetorical support for opposition forces.

Hence, we should inquiry about, what Lies Ahead?

It most likely that he coming months will see intensified clashes, especially in contested regions such as Aleppo and Idlib. Opposition factions may achieve localized victories, but without unified leadership and broader international support, their ability to mount a decisive challenge to Assad remains uncertain. Conversely, the regime will aim to exploit divisions among its adversaries, relying on its external allies to maintain a strategic upper hand.

Ultimately, Syria’s trajectory will depend on external geopolitical shifts. If Russia regains stability in Ukraine, it may reassert its dominance in Syria, reinforcing Assad’s position. Conversely, a prolonged Russian quagmire could embolden opposition groups, especially if Turkey and Gulf states decide to escalate their involvement. Iran’s growing role, coupled with shifting Saudi-Iranian dynamics, will also play a critical role in shaping Syria’s future.

In summary, Syria remains a theater of unresolved conflict, where neither side is poised for decisive victory. The nation’s fate will continue to be shaped by a complex interplay of local resistance, regime resilience, and the geopolitical ambitions of external powers.