Saudi Ambassador With Al Mashat

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KSA & Houthis - What Beyond?

Analytics - منذ 1 يوم

Saudi Roadmap | An Exit Strategy or Solution for Peace

South Eye | Analysis - Exclusive

The Yemeni conflict has long been a quagmire of competing interests, deep-seated grievances, and shifting alliances. The latest Saudi-crafted peace roadmap, born out of backdoor negotiations with the Houthis and facilitated by the Chinese-mediated Saudi-Iran rapprochement, represents a bold yet contentious attempt to bring the war to a close. While the intentions behind the roadmap might appear noble, its feasibility and implications warrant deeper scrutiny, particularly given the concerns it raises about consolidating Houthi dominance rather than fostering a truly inclusive peace.

To understand the Saudi position, one must first acknowledge its strategic imperative: exiting the Yemeni conflict. For years, Saudi Arabia has borne the economic, political, and reputational costs of its involvement in Yemen. The war, initially launched with the intent of swiftly curbing Houthi influence and reinstating the internationally recognized government, has devolved into a protracted stalemate. The Houthis, with support from Iran, have not only entrenched themselves in northern Yemen but have also demonstrated their capability to strike deep into Saudi territory.

Faced with this reality, the Saudi leadership has sought a face-saving exit strategy. The roadmap, designed within this context, reflects Riyadh’s prioritization of national security and regional stability over the complexities of Yemen’s internal dynamics. By engaging directly with the Houthis, Saudi Arabia aims to neutralize a key threat along its southern border and redirect its resources toward domestic economic reforms under Vision 2030.

However, the roadmap’s reliance on Houthi-Saudi dialogue, rather than broader Yemeni consensus, reveals its primary flaw. The Houthis have emerged as a dominant force not through political legitimacy or popular support but through military conquest and coercion. Their control over Sana’a and other key areas is maintained through an iron grip on governance and a brutal suppression of dissent. Any agreement that legitimizes this dominance risks sidelining the broader aspirations of Yemenis who have suffered immensely under Houthi rule.

Moreover, the Houthi-Saudi negotiations, facilitated by the détente between Saudi Arabia and Iran, inherently exclude other key stakeholders in Yemen. The internationally recognized government (PLC), Southern Transitional Council (STC), tribal leaders, and civil society actors—each representing vital components of Yemen’s fractured political landscape—have been largely left out of these backdoor dealings. This exclusion undermines the roadmap’s potential to serve as a foundation for a sustainable and inclusive peace.

From a military perspective, the roadmap’s concessions to the Houthis raise critical concerns. The Houthis have consistently leveraged ceasefires and negotiations to consolidate their power and regroup militarily. By granting them de facto recognition and significant concessions, Saudi Arabia risks emboldening a group that has shown little willingness to compromise or integrate into a pluralistic political framework. The Houthis' historical pattern of behavior suggests that they may view the roadmap as a tactical victory, allowing them to strengthen their position while avoiding substantive commitments to broader peace.

Politically, the roadmap also risks entrenching a dangerous precedent: that power can be achieved and maintained through force. Such an outcome would not only embolden the Houthis but also set a concerning example for other factions within Yemen and beyond. It would signal that military dominance, rather than dialogue and compromise, is the path to political relevance, further destabilizing the region.

Critics of the roadmap, particularly those within Yemen, fear that it prioritizes Saudi exit strategies over the genuine needs and aspirations of the Yemeni people. This perception is not unfounded. The roadmap appears to be more of a bilateral arrangement between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis than a comprehensive peace plan. It lacks the mechanisms to address Yemen’s humanitarian crisis, rebuild its shattered economy, or reconcile its deeply divided society.

Despite these criticisms, it is essential to recognize that the roadmap represents an opportunity, albeit a flawed one. For it to succeed, it must be reimagined as a framework for inclusive dialogue rather than a deal between two dominant players. This requires active engagement from international actors, particularly the United Nations, to broaden the scope of negotiations and ensure that all Yemeni voices are heard in North & South. It also demands a commitment from Saudi Arabia and Iran to use their influence constructively.

Hence, the Saudi-designed peace roadmap, in its current form, falls short of addressing Yemen’s complex realities. While it reflects Saudi Arabia’s strategic priorities and the broader geopolitical shifts in the region, its reliance on Houthi-Saudi dialogue and its exclusion of key stakeholders risk undermining its credibility and sustainability. Achieving a balanced and inclusive peace in Yemen requires more than bilateral agreements and strategic concessions; it demands a genuine commitment to addressing the root causes of the conflict and empowering Yemenis to determine their own future. Only through such an approach can the long-suffering people of Yemen hope to see an end to the devastation that has plagued their region for nearly a decade.