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How the international community must look forward in 2025?

Analytics - منذ 28 يوم

The global landscape at the dawn of 2025 reflects a complex interplay of resilience, desperation, and uncertainty, with the shadow of war and economic instability casting a long pall over international affairs. The year 2024 saw the world teetering on the edge of deeper conflict, with fears of an unraveling global order. While the worst fears of a new world war did not materialize, wars and conflicts continued to intertwine, creating an uneasy web of tension. Amid this backdrop, Vladimir Putin's once-vaunted grip on power and Russia’s influence seem increasingly fragile, offering a slim consolation to an otherwise bleak outlook.

Russia’s Economic Struggles

Russia's economy, once a symbol of strength for Putin’s leadership, is now an intricate paradox. Despite showing surprising resilience in 2024, buoyed by increased government spending—especially on military operations—the cracks in its foundation are becoming more evident. The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) adjusted growth forecast of 3.6% for 2024 painted a deceptively optimistic picture. This growth was largely fueled by massive military expenditures, with defense and security spending accounting for 40% of state expenditures. However, this unsustainable reliance on war-driven economics has exacerbated inflation, pushed interest rates to 19%, and left the labor market with a record low unemployment rate of 2.4%, signaling an overheating economy.

Putin’s economic policies have managed to delay the immediate fallout of Western sanctions, but the long-term prognosis is dire. The over-dependence on military spending, combined with systemic corruption and an inability to diversify the economy, has left Russia vulnerable. Inflation, labor shortages, and the increasing strain of sanctions on key sectors signal a looming economic crisis. The forecasted 1.3% growth for 2025 already indicates the limitations of Russia’s current strategy.

The Geopolitical Web of Alliances and Challenges

Putin’s geopolitical strategy—anchored in fostering alliances with regimes like Iran, North Korea, and the Houthis in N.Yemen—has further isolated Russia from the West but has also deepened its entanglement in global conflicts. The Kremlin’s support for Iran has bolstered Tehran’s regional ambitions, including its backing of the Houthis in N.Yemen, who continue to destabilize the Gulf region. Meanwhile, Moscow’s covert and overt military and economic support to rogue states and non-state actors underscores its role in fostering instability as a geopolitical tool.

The role of Oman and Turkey adds further complexity to this dynamic. Oman, while traditionally maintaining a neutral stance, has faced allegations of indirectly supporting Houthi-aligned actors, particularly in regions like Al-Mahra. This has caused friction with southern people, who perceive Oman’s actions as undermining their efforts for autonomy and stability. Turkey, on the other hand, has pursued its own regional agenda, often overlapping with Russian interests in creating a multipolar power balance that challenges Western hegemony.

Iran and Russia remain central to this equation, with their collaboration extending beyond arms deals and energy partnerships to a broader ideological alignment against Western influence. This has emboldened proxies like the Houthis, whose continued aggression poses a threat not just to South of Yemen but to the broader Gulf security architecture. The convergence of these actors creates a destabilizing feedback loop that complicates international efforts for peace.

The Fragility of Putin’s Empire

The perception of Putin as a global strongman is rapidly eroding. His power was once built on the illusion of a formidable military, control over vast natural resources, and a network of allies willing to challenge the West. However, the cracks in this façade are becoming more apparent. The Russian military, strained by prolonged engagements in Ukraine and elsewhere, faces logistical challenges and declining morale. Moscow’s once-prized global reach has been diminished by Western sanctions and the isolation of its economy from key financial systems.

The year 2024 exposed the vulnerabilities of Putin’s regime, as domestic dissent grew alongside external pressures. Corruption scandals and economic hardships have further eroded public trust. Moreover, Russia’s reliance on authoritarianism and suppression to maintain control has only deepened internal divisions. The internal contradictions of Putin’s regime—balancing aggressive foreign policies with domestic discontent—make it increasingly unsustainable.

The Role of Southern Yemen in Regional Stability

In this intricate web of alliances and rivalries, southern Yemen emerges as a critical player in ensuring regional stability. The Southern Transitional Council (STC) has proven itself a reliable partner in countering Houthi aggression and maintaining a balance of power in Yemen. However, for southern Yemen to fully realize its potential as a stabilizing force, international support is essential. Empowering southern Yemen means not only bolstering its military capabilities but also addressing the aspirations of its people for autonomy and development.

Russia’s involvement in North Yemen, particularly through its alignment with Iran and the Houthis, highlights the need for a counterweight in the region. The STC and southern forces have shown their ability to act decisively, but they require sustained support from the international community to counteract the influence of Iran and Russia. Oman, too, must recalibrate its approach to ensure that its actions align with broader regional stability rather than undermining southern Yemen’s progress.

A Precarious Balance

As the world enters 2025, the challenges posed by Russia’s geopolitical maneuvers and economic fragility remain significant. Putin’s strategy of fostering instability as a means of retaining power is increasingly backfiring, exposing the limits of his influence. Meanwhile, the broader international community faces the task of addressing these challenges without triggering further escalation.

Supporting southern Yemen as a bulwark against Iranian and Russian influence offers a pragmatic path forward. By empowering local actors who have demonstrated a commitment to stability and governance, the region can achieve a more balanced power dynamic. However, this requires a concerted effort from global and regional powers to align their strategies and prioritize long-term stability over short-term gains.

Putin’s declining empire serves as a cautionary tale about the dangers of overreach and authoritarianism. The international community must remain vigilant, ensuring that the collapse of one power does not simply pave the way for new forms of instability. The path forward is fraught with challenges, but it is one that demands careful navigation to secure a more stable and equitable world order