Russia Allies VS US Allies

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The South of Yemen Amid the Past & present History of Allying

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The South in the Map of Global Interests

South Eye | Analysis - Exclusive

In a world where major powers compete for influence and resources, the South finds itself at the heart of a complex regional and international equation. Recent events, which have exposed massive corruption within the structure of the Presidential Leadership Council, have proven that the South is not merely a stage for internal conflicts. Instead, it has become part of regional and international agendas seeking to achieve their own interests. In this context, we assert that it is essential for the people of the South to understand these dynamics and work to define a strategic direction that takes these interests into account without compromising their national rights for restoring the southern state.

As observable, regional powers are competing for influence in the South, which is considered a strategic location connecting Asia and Africa, with access to vital maritime routes. This importance makes the South a focal point for many regional and international countries seeking to enhance their influence in the area. For example, neighboring countries view the South as a vital region for their national security and work to support specific factions to ensure their interests are met. This applies to Saudi Arabia and Oman, among others.

On the other hand, major powers such as Iran, Turkey, Russia, China, the United States, UK beside the European Union are also seeking to expand their influence in the region, exploiting the state of instability to achieve their goals.

Amidst these rivalries, it becomes imperative for the people of the South to recognize that any political direction must take these interests into account without compromising their national rights.

At the international level, for example, the US and the UK both aim to enhance energy security and protect vital maritime routes while strengthening ties with any government or state. The presence of certain figures in the Presidential Leadership Council, as well as political entities like Al Mu'atamr and the Islah Party, reflects the policy of "no permanent enemies, no permanent friends." So, If the South aligns closely with Russia, for instance, former adversaries may be turned against it, alongside the risks of sanctions and isolation. This is what is known as the conflict for influence.

Russia, too, is not isolated from this conflict. It seeks to enhance its influence in the region by supporting specific regimes, such as Iran, and providing military assistance, thereby strengthening its proxy in the N. Yemen. Historically, any state aligned with Russia, whether in the past or present, finds itself facing enemies and its stability threatened. This explains why regimes allied with Russia often adopt policies of partial or complete introvert, as seen in the cases of North Korea and its hostilities with South Korea, as well as Algeria and Morocco.

Similarly, China focuses on strengthening its economic presence in the region through infrastructure projects and major investments.

From this perspective, it becomes essential for the people of the South to understand these interests and work to build strategic alliances that balance these powers without compromising their national rights.

Why Should the People of the South Act?

Because, it is evident that the people of the South are facing increasing pressures that threaten their national unity and independence. These pressures manifest in various forms, such as:

Economic pressures and the blockade of essential services, which are used as tools to pressure the people of the South.

Attempts to fragment the national fabric by supporting specific factions and inciting discord.

Aggressive wars and criminal terrorism aimed at weakening the people of the South, whether these wars are supported by the West, the East, or even regional states. These actions are not isolated from the broader struggle for influence among major powers.

However, to confront these pressures, it is essential for the people of the South to cooperate and open up to the world in order to build strategic alliances that protect their national rights. Especially in the face of these challenges, cooperation and openness to the world become necessary for the people of the South. This cooperation must be built on clear foundations that balance national interests with regional and international interests. Additionally, the people of the South must work to build strategic alliances with regional and international powers that respect their national rights, while adopting a policy of diplomacy and open dialogue. This is particularly important in the context of waves of local, regional, and international polarization. Yes, there will be disagreements in some views, but logic will always remain steadfast in its argument. When the truth becomes clear to the people, even if force is used, the justifications for such actions will become more acceptable.

This call is not an assumption but a realistic study derived from the history of conflicts in the Middle East and the world.

The steps taken by the people of the South will determine the level of international support for the just Southern cause. Despite its legitimacy, international reservations remain evident for those who delve deeper into the issue. Building alliances is a step toward gaining support, and this will happen if the people of the South (leaders) adopt a specific values within their internal system. Although these values are not necessarily strict principles for other parties, they are an expression of interest in building relationships with such potential ally. Moreover, once these values are adopted, the opportunity to turn to another ally becomes slim. Let us take examples from the world: democratic countries, for instance, rarely turn into dictatorships, and if that happens, even minimal support from the West can collapse the regime. The opposite is also true. Additionally, these values are accompanied by those adopted by systems based on religion, as seen in Afghanistan, where two countries with different ideologies tried there but both failed. This explains the Gulf support, particularly from Saudi Arabia, for religious groups in the Middle East, such as Salafists, alongside Turkish support for Sunni groups like the Muslim Brotherhood, and perhaps even ISIS and Al-Qaeda, especially when looking at Somalia as a case study, where Turkey holds influence alongside the presence of radical Movements.

Examples also exist within the South itself. During the era of socialist rule, despite its flaws and merits, although Russia is no longer a reliable ally today—especially given the failure of its system domestically and the current crises not only affecting Russia but also its allies in Latin America, Africa, and East Asia, including Iran, as well as its failure in the Middle East, which was fully realized with the fall of the Assad regime—this Russian failure is not an accusation but a reality traced since the rise of the Soviet Union until its collapse, which carried negative consequences worldwide. Logically, can this be entirely attributed to the West, or there is a flaw in the Soviet Union's own policies, which it never reformed? As even recently we see the same approach, the same policies, and the same methods in Russia, particularly in its foreign policy, which is fundamentally based on the use of force and wars against its adversaries, much like the Houthis against the South or North Korea against South Korea, & Iran against Arab states (GCC). This policy relies on military strength and the state leadership in general, while the people suffer under the weight of these policies, leading to the collapse of the state in two scenarios: Western intervention or the fall of the patron and ally of these regimes, as happened to the South with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990.

This analysis is not accusations against Russia but reflects the observable reality. Despite all the negatives in Russia's global policy, it is clear from examining the internal situation in Yemen that the interest of the Southern people lies in their full independence. This is a truth that anyone who delves deeply into the region's situation will recognize. This interest must be supported, and Russia, despite what has been mentioned, is not exception, especially in light of the ongoing Western neglect. If its support aligns with the Southern people's aspirations for independence, it will undoubtedly be welcomed by the vast majority of the Southern population. And despite the consequences, it is certain that it will not be worse than the current situation.