Southern Transitional Council forces in southern Yemen_archive photo

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?Strategic study : Can STC goes further

Aden for strategic studies - منذ 2 شهر

South eye | aden

Since its establishment in 2017, the Southern Transitional Council (STC) has played a pivotal role in shaping the political landscape of southern Yemen. This strategic study explores the STC’s current position, future trajectory, and potential strategies for achieving its goals. It examines the factors influencing its evolution, including internal dynamics, external pressures, and regional developments.

2. Historical Context and Current Status

2.1 Formation and Objectives

The STC was founded with the primary aim of representing the interests of the southern Yemeni population and advocating for greater autonomy or independence for the southern regions. The council emerged in response to perceived marginalization by the central government and seeks to restore the pre-1990 independence of South Yemen.

 Current Position

As of now, the STC controls several key southern governorates, including Aden, and has established a presence in various administrative and security sectors. However, its authority is contested by other political actors, including the internationally recognized Yemeni government, local tribal groups, and militant factions. Hadhramaut, a significant governorate, remains outside the direct control of the STC, complicating efforts to consolidate southern influence.

3. Strategic Analysis

 Internal Dynamics

3.1.1 Fragmentation and Cohesion

The STC’s influence is challenged by internal fragmentation among southern factions. Regional disparities, particularly with Hadhramaut, present obstacles to creating a unified southern front. The STC must address these divisions through dialogue and negotiation to enhance cohesion and operational effectiveness.

3.1.2 Governance and Institutional Capacity

Building robust governance structures and administrative capacity is crucial for the STC. Enhancing institutional effectiveness, transparency, and service delivery will strengthen its legitimacy and operational capability. Investment in local governance and capacity building is essential for long-term stability.

 External Pressures

3.2.1 Regional Dynamics

The STC operates within a complex regional context, influenced by the interests of neighboring countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE. While these countries have supported the STC to varying degrees, they also have their own strategic priorities that may impact the council’s actions. Navigating these relationships and aligning regional support with the STC’s objectives is vital for its future trajectory.

3.2.2 International Relations

The STC must also manage its relationships with international stakeholders, including global powers and humanitarian organizations. Demonstrating commitment to peace, stability, and humanitarian principles can help secure broader support and mitigate international criticism.

 Economic and Humanitarian Challenges

Addressing economic and humanitarian issues is critical for gaining popular support and achieving long-term stability. The STC should focus on economic development, infrastructure improvement, and social services. Collaborating with international donors and organizations can provide the necessary resources and expertise.

4. Future Trajectory and Strategic Recommendations

4.1 Consolidating Regional Influence

To consolidate its influence, the STC should:

Strengthen Alliances: Build stronger alliances with local leaders and factions, including those in Hadhramaut, through dialogue and cooperation.

Enhance Governance: Develop and implement effective governance structures that address regional disparities and enhance administrative capacity.

4.2 Expanding Diplomatic Engagement

The STC should:

Engage Diplomatically: Foster diplomatic relationships with key regional and international stakeholders to secure support and align interests.

Promote Peace Initiatives: Actively participate in peace initiatives and negotiations to demonstrate commitment to a broader political solution for Yemen.

4.3 Addressing Economic and Humanitarian Needs

To address economic and humanitarian challenges, the STC should:

Focus on Development: Prioritize economic development projects, including infrastructure, job creation, and social services.

Seek External Support: Collaborate with international organizations and donors to obtain financial support and expertise for development projects.

4.4 Enhancing Stability and Security

To enhance stability and security, the STC should:

Implement Security Measures: Strengthen security measures to address internal and external threats and ensure public safety.

Promote Social Cohesion: Foster social cohesion through inclusive policies and initiatives that address the needs and grievances of various southern