التالى السابق

An Analytical Reading of the Saudi Presence in Southern Yemen Based on excerpts from community cultural evenings presented by writer and historian Mohammed Ali Shaif

Aden for strategic studies - منذ 1 ساعة

Ain Al-Janoub | Exclusive

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Analytical Introduction

This reading seeks to deconstruct the nature of the Saudi presence in southern Yemen through a political-historical analysis grounded in the perspective of writer and historian Mohammed Ali Shaif. It comes amid the rapid transformations taking place in the South and the complexities of both the political and regional landscapes. This approach aims to understand the implications of this presence on the trajectory of the Southern القضية (cause) and the aspirations of its people toward independence and self-determination.

Cultural Movement and Its Role in Shaping Awareness

This perspective falls within the context of a growing cultural movement reflecting an increasing level of awareness within southern society. Intellectual events are no longer merely platforms for rhetoric; they have evolved into strategic tools for reshaping collective consciousness and strengthening national identity. In light of mounting challenges, cultural discourse has become an active element in guiding public opinion and reinforcing the principles of peaceful struggle.

Post-Liberation Transformations and the Complexity of the Scene

Shaif يرى (argues) that the phase following the liberation of the South from Houthi control and northern forces did not lead to full sovereignty. Instead, it ushered in a more complex stage characterized by overlapping regional roles and the reproduction of multiple patterns of influence. He emphasizes that this phase marked a turning point that reshaped the balance of power within a broader regional context.

Deconstructing the Justifications of the Saudi Presence

In his critical reading, Shaif examines the declared justifications for the Saudi presence, foremost among them the protection of national security, considering them inconsistent with realities on the ground and used as a political cover to justify a different reality.

He raises fundamental questions about double standards, referencing the long-standing presence of northern military forces in Wadi and Desert Hadramout, which were never classified as a threat despite suspicions of links to Houthi support. In contrast, he notes that southern forces’ efforts to liberate their territories were met with direct targeting, reflecting a clear imbalance in defining sources of threat according to shifting political considerations.

Nature of Influence and Tools of Power

Shaif argues that the Saudi presence is not limited to military deployment but extends to indirect forms of influence exercised through local instruments and political alliances, thereby reinforcing a state of layered control.

He supports this by citing instances where southern forces were targeted at certain stages, alongside the re-empowerment of northern forces affiliated with Islamist factions. This raises deep questions about the true objectives of this intervention and its trajectories.

Managing the Conflict with the Houthis

Within his analysis of the war’s course, Shaif stresses that field realities do not indicate a genuine intention to decisively end the conflict with the Houthis. Instead, they suggest a pattern of conflict management based on prolongation.

He argues that Saudi Arabia did not enter Yemen with the sole aim of completely defeating the Houthis. Rather, developments show that its priorities shifted toward rearranging balances of power—especially in the South—in a way that serves broader regional calculations.

Convergence in Policy Outcomes

Shaif highlights a notable paradox in the convergence of policy outcomes among seemingly opposing parties. He يرى that the positions of Sana’a and Riyadh toward the South have shown clear similarities in their impact on the southern cause, despite differences in political rhetoric.

In his view, this reflects the complexity of the regional political structure, where outcomes may intersect despite divergent slogans.

Media Discourse and the Reproduction of Exclusion

Shaif addresses the media dimension, criticizing certain Saudi outlets for using exclusionary descriptions of southerners, at times carrying hostile connotations.

He argues that this discourse reproduces the same approach previously employed by Yemeni occupation forces, which resorted to takfir (excommunication) and defamation against southerners. He considers this similarity an indication of convergence in methods and policies toward the South, both in practice and rhetoric.

Unity of Ranks and Adherence to the Political Framework

In the face of these challenges, Shaif emphasizes that the resilience of the southern people remains the decisive factor. He stresses that commitment to the cause requires steadfast adherence to its political framework, represented by the Southern Transitional Council, as the entity expressing the political will of the people.

He also calls for rejecting accusatory rhetoric and internal divisions that drain energy and weaken the overall position, affirming that the strength of the cause lies in unity and internal cohesion.

Future Prospects

This reading indicates that the future of the South will remain dependent on its ability to balance internal cohesion with managing regional pressures. Current challenges necessitate building a clear political vision rooted in popular will and capable of engaging with the complexities of the regional and international environment.

In light of the above, Mohammed Ali Shaif presents an analytical vision linking historical and political dimensions while revealing the nature of regional entanglements in the South. This reading underscores that the South is no longer merely a local conflict arena but has become part of a complex regional equation.

Accordingly, the future of the South will not be determined solely by internal balances, but by its ability to assert itself as a unified political actor possessing a clear vision and strong will in a reality that recognizes only those capable of firmly establishing their presence.