Forces affiliated with the Southern Transitional Council

التالى السابق

The New Arab Agency...The Southern Transitional Council is struggling to determine its future in fragmented yemen

Analytics - 2 month ago

 Special translation  Ain Al Janoub, Aden

 Warning the international and regional community of the increased threat of #Houthis and their attacks if money is paid as a reward through the road map, most of which will go toward building their military capabilities.

 Counselor Al-Sahmi stressed the Transitional Council's support for any measures targeting the financial resources of the Houthi group.

 Considering that going to sign the road map without the participation of the Southern Transitional Council and the active parties on the ground will not make it last long and will pave the way for future conflicts.

 This came in the interview conducted with the representative of the Southern Transitional Council in the United Kingdom, Counselor Muhammad Al-Sahmi, previously 

 Hugo Goodridge works for The New Arab Voice.

 “The Southern Transitional Council is struggling to determine its future in a fragmented Yemen

 In depth: The UN's proposed roadmap for peace in Yemen largely mirrors bilateral talks between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, with the other warring parties on hold.

 “The war in Gaza has shifted focus from other conflicts in the region, including Yemen... Yemen needs to get back on the agenda to achieve a long-term peace settlement.”

 That's what Mohammed Al-Sahmi, the representative of the Southern Transitional Council in the United Kingdom, recently told The New Arab when we sat down to discuss the status of the roadmap to peace and what the future holds for the Southern Transitional Council in Yemen.

 The current peace talks, as expected, are driven by different ambitions.

 For Saudi Arabia and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, there is a strong desire to exit a conflict that has achieved little, consumed significant military resources, and cost the Gulf state a significant amount of international capital.

 For the Iran-backed Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah, the goal is to maintain the position they hold and not give up the control they have gained across large parts of the country.

 While both are major players in Yemen, neither is officially considered the internationally recognized ruling authority.

 This honor falls to the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), led by President Rashad Alimi.

 Established as an internationally recognized government in April 2022, the seven-seat body includes three representatives from the Southern Transitional Council (STC).

 The Southern Transitional Council was established in May 2017, although its roots can be found in the Southern Movement, a southern movement.

 On May 4, 2017, Aidaroos Al-Zubaidi, the former governor of the southern Yemeni city of Aden, delivered what became known as the “Historic Aden Declaration,” and seven days later, the Southern Transitional Council was established.

 The peace process in Yemen

 In April 2022, efforts were launched to end years of brutal fighting in Yemen, and a UN-brokered ceasefire was announced.  This represented the best path to peace the country had seen in years, but no one expected it to be easy.

 The ceasefire ended in October 2022, but fighting did not resume with the same ferocity, much to the relief of many.

 Hopes of hearing a wide range of ideas in the negotiations quickly evaporated when it became clear that Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis would occupy the only two seats at the table, with other interested parties frozen out, including the Southern Transitional Council and, more generally, the Presidential Command Council.

 Subsequently, enthusiasm among the Presidential Command Council was low, and it was expected that the Houthis would be granted more concessions than were acceptable to those who opposed them.

 These efforts are supported by the United Nations and its special envoy Hans Grundberg, who is trying to secure greater levels of support for the talks from anti-Houthi groups.

 Dr. Jens Haibach, a researcher at the German Institute for Global and Regional Studies, explained to Tasnim International News Agency: “They [the anti-Houthi groups] are not willing to do this. They were not included in the negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Ansar Allah that led to the roadmap, and they were not  "Involving the United Nations or Grundberg, some say."

 While the STC claims to support the peace process, it is frustrated by the narrow participation.

 “It was basically consultations between the Houthis and the Saudis with mediators. It was not a comprehensive process, so that we could all say ‘this is our map, and this is the map we want in order to make it successful,'” Al-Sahmi explained.

 The Southern Transitional Council is very frank about this matter.  They feel they are able to advance their demands because of the UAE's support for them.  So, do they deserve to be part of the conversation?  Yes, every Yemeni side in the conflict deserves to be part of the talks,” said Heibach.

 “It is important to understand that the STC, regardless of its claim to represent all southerners, is not uncontested in the south. Likewise, it is important to understand that the weakness of the anti-Houthi camp is also due to the ongoing Saudi-Emirati rivalry,” 

 As for the Southern Transitional Council, they believe that if the peace talks continue on their current Saudi-Houthi-centric path, they will end in only one direction.

 Al-Sahmi claims: “The so-called road map, without cooperation, is believed to be a road full of accidents.”  He also expressed the Southern Transitional Council's frustration with the timing of the road map and the lack of clarity regarding its framing and transparency.

 “We don't really know what's in the roadmap. This is one of the issues we face in terms of accepting this roadmap or not. But I think it's very important for us to look at the roadmap as a comprehensive solution to the crisis, including the economic situation.”  .

 Initially, the much-needed peace process made some progress, mainly in the exchange of prisoners, but it was limited and slow.

 With ongoing attacks by the Houthis in the Red Sea, in support of Gaza, and more recently, directly against Israel with a drone attack, the desire for progress has grown.

 The Houthi attacks and seizure of commercial ships linked to Israel were eye-catching and a threat to international shipping and trade, bringing international attention back to the Gulf.

 Between October 2023 and March 2024, the Houthis attacked more than 60 ships in the Red Sea, according to a US Congressional report.  In January 2024, the trade route saw a 78% drop in expected traffic, as ships sought a safe route.

 Amid these attacks, the United States and the United Kingdom led an air campaign against the Houthis, hoping to deter the group or weaken its capabilities.  So far, these efforts have not been as effective as was widely expected.

 According to Heibach, “The United States clearly gave Saudi Arabia the green light to move forward with the roadmap in mid-May despite Washington’s ongoing campaign against the Houthis.”

 But despite the renewed momentum, the lack of inclusivity in the talks has not improved, in the STC's view.

 Al-Sahmi said: “It is still the same. It may have become worse now with the Houthi attacks on the Red Sea, which have completely changed the landscape now and the context of any peace initiatives. With the Houthi attacks on the Red Sea, which have completely changed the landscape now and the context of any peace initiatives. We believe  "This needs to be recalibrated into something actionable now."

 For the likes of the United States, the theory was fairly straightforward.  They believed that if a peace agreement was reached, attacks in the Red Sea would stop, or at least be significantly reduced, without the need for a ceasefire in Gaza.

 To date, the attacks have continued.

 But despite the lack of progress by the US and UK, the STC wants strikes on the Houthis to continue, and even increase.

 Perhaps unsurprisingly for the anti-Houthi party, the Iranian-backed group's continued military strength is a major point of contention, as its capabilities have increased dramatically in recent years.

 “If you look at the Houthis’ military capacity two years ago, they couldn’t reach Riyadh and Saudi Arabia, or three years ago, but now they can reach beyond Riyadh. So how can their attacks be more precise? That means their military capabilities  It gets better,” Mahmoud Shehra, a former Yemeni diplomat and associate fellow at Chatham House, explained to TNA.

 To remedy this, Al-Sahmi says that the Southern Transitional Council wants to see the international community increase pressure on the group.

 “Because without that, without taking that responsibility, I think the Houthis would probably be a problem in the region, and they are at the moment.” “We have seen that they are not a reliable partner in the region, and they can use the Red Sea and attacks in order to gain more leverage over any agreement.”  peace".

 Al-Sahmi also expressed the desire of the Southern Transitional Council to see the Houthis hit on their “wallet,” that is, their financial resources.

 “I believe that targeted sanctions should be imposed on the Houthis in order to prevent any further financial and military support at this stage.”

 The United States has imposed sanctions on individuals linked to the Houthis, for example, Saeed al-Jamal, an Iran-based financier.  Despite this, smuggling still creates huge revenues for the group.

 “I think we will have a problem with the Houthis arming themselves with the bulk of the money they will get from this roadmap, and they will become stronger. Therefore, they will be more of a threat to security,” Al-Sahmi said, calling for more support for the leadership council.

 The anti-Houthi bloc is united in its opposition, but separately represents different groups within Yemen, with different policies, ideologies, and interests.

 This raises an interesting question when it comes to the idea of ​​supporting the Presidential Leadership Council.  If a foreign country decided to support defense efforts, then who would it support?

 While there is an internationally recognized government in Yemen, there is still a unified military force in the country.  Each group continues to maintain its own army.

 The British or Americans, for example, could provide training and capacity building for naval efforts, but without a unified army, this would have to be provided to one group, at the expense of another.

 The future prospects for a unified military force seem distant, according to Heibach.

 “Given the existing animosity between the members of the Presidency, I highly doubt they will be able to achieve this.” One of the reasons for the civil war in 1994 was the unwillingness of both the SP and the Congress to relinquish control of their armies despite the unification.  "During all periods of Yemen's modern history, almost all important political actors have been able to resort to their own power, whether tribal, military or paramilitary."

 Given Yemen's recent history, the establishment of the Leadership Council was a fairly monumental achievement, but it is by no means perfect, and there is certainly room for it to be strengthened.

 For Sahmi, it's a matter of financing.

 “I think the funding the government receives may not be enough to provide services and there are also problems with the central bank. Now, in Yemen, we have two central banks. We have two parliaments. So we are literally two countries.”

 The theory is correct, but as always, it is not just about the amount of money available, it is also about where the money goes and how it is spent, as corruption is a perennial problem.

 In 2023, Transparency International, which “advocates anti-corruption policy,” according to its website, ranked Yemen 176 out of 180 countries.

 Funding may be an answer to the Presidential Command Council's problems and is likely to be part of the solution, but there is a more fundamental issue with the body.

 "It could be successful," he said.

 While the Command Council is mostly united by its disdain for the Houthis, it remains fragmented by its own ambitions and visions for Yemen's future, how the regions should be governed, and by whom.

 As unpalatable as their methods and ideologies seem to many, a future for Yemen without the Houthis seems simply unrealistic.

 At the appropriate time, either before or after a peace plan is agreed upon between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, the Presidential Command Council will have to enter into talks with the Houthis.  When that moment comes, they will have to come to a solution with them, and all parties will have to reach a settlement.

 “The strength of the Leadership Council parties depends largely on their relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and each of the two countries seeks to achieve its own interests, which may or may not overlap with the interests of its Yemeni allies and proxies,” says Heibach.

 He adds: "Although the matter may seem confusing today, the only thing that the parties of the anti-Houthi camp can do to improve their negotiating position facing the Houthis is to reach an agreement with each other."

 Without a political solution, the civil war, which has already cost the Yemeni people dearly, will continue.

 The Yemen peace plan is often referred to as a roadmap.  If we follow this analogy, peace in Yemen is just beginning to come.

 Houthi Transitional Council, Yemen, South, Saudi Arabia, Road Map