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The Assassination of Hassan Nasrallah: A Painful Blow to the Houthis or a New Chapter?

Aden for strategic studies - 27 day ago

South Eye || ADEN 

 the group has been hit by a painful string of assassinations of its senior elite leaders. On the other hand, it is facing big security and military challenges in Lebanon. However, Hezbollah still enjoys large capabilities and continues playing a pivotal role in the regional conflict despite the latest blows.

The ’Islamic Republic‘ of Iran likely deals with the Houthis in an indirect way through the Hezbollah due to the fact that it is a country that has concerns over being accused of intervening in the affairs of another country. Moreover, Iran has transformed Hezbollah into the role of supervising Tehran's Shiite proxies in the region.

It can be said that the Houthis remain a secondary tool for Iran, due to their geographical distance. Nonetheless, the need for the Houthis has clearly increased since its Red Sea operations which has tipped the balance in Iran’s favor in its naval war with Israel that has extended for decades. Additionally, the Houthis constitute a direct threat to Saudi Arabia which has the biggest Arab economy. This has made the Houthis an important pressure tool in the regional conflict between Tehran and Riyadh.

Will Nasrallah’s Assassination Impact the Houthis?

 

provide them support as an alternative that can make an influence balance in the region. Tehran, which has lost a large part of its influence in Lebanon, may fix this with expanding its clout circle in Yemen. 

On the other hand, the relationship between Iran and its proxies in the region points to a strong link in their goals and strategies. Thus, any strike directed at Iran or one of its proxies will affect the other arms too. Consequently, the decline of Hezbollah may directly impact the Houthi ability to move freely, regardless of the level of damage that could impact them.

This means that the repeated Israeli strikes against Hezbollah, that have hit it with heavy losses within its ranks, have created a leadership vacuum and destabilized the decision-making mechanism inside the Iranian military network. And being part of this network, the Houthis will inevitably be impacted by these developments.

It isn’t unlikely that the killing of Hezbollah leaders will have a direct impact on the Houthis as both of them are part of an interconnected Iranian military network. The killings weaken the Hezbollah's ability to provide logistic and military support to the Houthis. Thus, this will reduce the Houthi military capabilities in a way that impacts the path of the conflict in Yemen, in the short, medium or long term.

Finally, the assassination of Hezbollah leaders is expected to affect the Houthis at several levels. Militarily, this decreases the support delivered to the Houthis. Politically, this weakens the influence of Iran in the region. At the media level, this reduces the propaganda that they used to receive.