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China Role on the Global Stage, The Ascending of China

Analytics - منذ 4 ساعات

South Eye | Analysis - Exclusive

China’s role on the global stage has evolved dramatically in recent years, transitioning from a developing economy to a powerhouse with significant influence across economic, diplomatic, and strategic domains. This transformation is underscored by its proactive engagement in multilateral forums like the G20, where it advocates for the Global South, and its deepening ties with regions such as Africa, ASEAN, and the Middle East. However, China’s rise is not without limitations, including structural economic challenges, geopolitical tensions, and the constraints of its non-interventionist foreign policy. Below is a detailed analysis of China’s current global role, its stabilizing potential, key indicators of its influence, and the challenges it faces.

China as a Force for Global Stability

China positions itself as a stabilizing actor, particularly in a world grappling with geopolitical fragmentation and economic uncertainty. Its emphasis on multilateralism and dialogue is evident in initiatives like the G20, where it supports Africa’s inclusion—highlighted by the 2025 summit in South Africa, the first on the continent—as a platform for the Global South to shape global governance 45. Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s recent remarks at the China-ASEAN meeting further reinforce this narrative, with China pledging to be a "trustworthy force for stability" and a "reliable partner" in addressing regional challenges. His four-point proposal—emphasizing fairness, peace, win-win cooperation, and cultural exchange—reflects China’s broader strategy of fostering stability through institutional engagement and soft power 5.

Economically, China’s growth, though slowing, remains a critical anchor for global demand. The OECD projects a 4.7% GDP growth for 2025, driven by state-directed investment and resilient trade surpluses, even as advanced economies stagnate 46. Its marine economy, now exceeding $1.4 trillion (7.8% of GDP), underscores its capacity to drive niche sectors while integrating sustainability goals [contextual]. Meanwhile, initiatives like the UK-China Financial Dialogue highlight China’s role in stabilizing global financial systems through cross-border market integration and green finance cooperation 8.

Key Indicators of China’s Global Influence

Economic Leverage:

Trade and Investment: China is the top trading partner for most Global South nations, with Middle East trade doubling to $507 billion (2017–2022) 11. Its BRI investments in ports (e.g., Djibouti, Suez Canal) and digital infrastructure (e.g., 5G in Arab states) amplify its economic footprint.

Financial Systems: The internationalization of the yuan (e.g., London’s RMB clearing hub) and partnerships like the UK-China ETF Connect signal growing financial clout 8.

Diplomatic and Strategic Engagement:

Mediation: China’s brokering of the Saudi-Iran détente in 2023 showcased its unique capacity to navigate Middle Eastern rivalries, though its reluctance to join security coalitions (e.g., Red Sea patrols) reveals limits 11.

Cultural Soft Power: Events like the Nishan Forum on World Civilizations and the Liangzhu Museum exchanges promote cross-cultural dialogue, aligning with Xi’s vision of "mutual learning" among civilizations [contextual].

Institutional Leadership:

China’s active role in the G20, SCO, and ASEAN-centric frameworks (e.g., the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) allows it to shape norms, particularly around development and non-interference 511.

Limitations and Challenges

Structural Economic Vulnerabilities:

China’s growth relies heavily on state-directed investment and debt, risking long-term productivity. While it meets GDP targets (e.g., 5% in 2025), the quality of growth is uneven, with consumption contributing only 45% of GDP growth in 2024—far below pre-pandemic levels 610.

Trade War Risks: U.S. tariffs and tech decoupling could dampen exports, as seen in UBS’s downward revision (to 3.4% growth) amid trade tensions 6.

Geopolitical Constraints:

Security Dependence: In the Middle East, China’s lack of hard power (e.g., minimal naval presence in Djibouti) forces it to rely on the U.S. security umbrella for oil shipments, exposing vulnerabilities 11.

Non-Interventionist Dilemma: China’s refusal to mediate in conflicts like Ukraine or Gaza, beyond rhetorical support for "political solutions," limits its perceived reliability as a global stabilizer 511.

Global South Skepticism:

While China champions developing nations, its asymmetric trade relationships (e.g., with Iran) and BRI debt concerns have sparked pushback in Africa and Southeast Asia 11.

Conclusion: A Contradictory Power

China’s global role is marked by ambition and contradiction. It advocates stability yet avoids security entanglements; it drives growth but faces structural imbalances. Its economic indicators (e.g., marine economy, trade surpluses) and diplomatic initiatives (e.g., G20, ASEAN) demonstrate tangible influence, but limitations—from demographic decline to geopolitical hesitancy—constrain its capacity to fully replace Western-led systems. For now, China’s stability-enhancing role is most effective in economic integration and multilateral forums, while its geopolitical impact remains incremental and carefully calculated. The coming years will test whether it can transcend these contradictions to redefine global governance truly.