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Influence in Southern Yemen Wanes as the Southern Transition Council Consolidates its Popular Presence

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South Eye || ADEN

A report published by the American magazine International Policy Digest stated that Saudi influence in the South is witnessing a noticeable decline, while the Southern Transitional Council (STC) continues to demonstrate its capacity for popular mobilization and political organization. The report emphasized that the Southern issue has become one of the most prominent matters that cannot be bypassed in any future political settlement.

The report, authored by researcher Giulia Abbondanza, explained that tens of thousands of Southerners gathered in the cities of Aden, Mukalla, and Seiyun during recent mass events. This served as a political message confirming sustained popular support for the STC and President-Commander Aidarus al-Zoubaidi, despite difficult economic conditions and high temperatures.

It noted that participants raised the flags of the former Southern state and portraits of President al-Zoubaidi, while slogans focused on rejecting what they described as foreign interference in Southern affairs and criticizing Saudi policies, while reiterating that the STC serves as the primary political vehicle for the aspirations of the people of the South.

The report pointed out that while the relationship between the STC and Saudi Arabia has remained grounded in military cooperation against the Houthis, it is simultaneously characterized by deep strategic differences. Riyadh adheres to the unity of Yemen, whereas the STC seeks to restore the state of the South—a divide that was clearly highlighted during the recent demonstrations.

Furthermore, the report stressed that organizing simultaneous mass events across three major cities reflects significant organizational capabilities on the part of the STC. It proves that the Council remains a pivotal actor in the political equation, still capable of mobilizing the Southern street despite political and security pressures.

It added that local reports mentioned security restrictions and the closure of some roads leading to gathering sites in Aden and Seiyun; however, this did not prevent the continued flow of participants, but rather strengthened their determination to deliver their message.

According to the report, while these crowds do not constitute a referendum on independence, they prove that the Southern issue cannot be bypassed or postponed until after the war with the Houthis ends. Instead, it has become a core issue that must be addressed within any comprehensive political settlement.

The report concluded by asserting that the STC remains an active political player that is difficult to bypass, and that Saudi Arabia—despite possessing tools of influence, funding, and alliance patronage—cannot ignore the aspirations of Southerners led by the STC, nor can it impose a political formula that fails to take them into account.