KSA & Iran

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KSA & Iran, the last high-level visit what gonna happen?

Analytics - منذ 10 أيام

Analysis Report on the Saudi-Iranian High-Level Military Delegation Visit

The recent visit by a high-ranking Saudi military delegation to Iran marks a notable milestone in the ongoing efforts to restore diplomatic relations between two of the Middle East's most influential powers. This "rare" visit, as described by Iranian media, comes in the wake of several reconciliation steps initiated earlier in 2023, primarily mediated by China. Since that landmark agreement, both Saudi Arabia and Iran have progressively resumed their diplomatic, economic, and, most recently, military dialogues—a development that holds significant implications for regional security and balance of power.

One major dimension of this visit is its potential impact on security in the Arabian Gulf. For decades, the Gulf region has been a flashpoint of tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, often manifesting through indirect confrontations in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq. By opening channels for military cooperation or at least mutual understanding, both nations could reduce the risks of direct military conflict. This diplomatic gesture, thus, appears aimed at de-escalating tensions, addressing security threats, and exploring joint mechanisms to counter terrorism and criminal networks.

For example, the Gulf region is vulnerable to challenges such as arms smuggling, maritime security issues, and terrorism—concerns both Saudi Arabia and Iran would likely benefit from addressing collectively. By fostering an atmosphere of dialogue and cooperation, they might reduce the destabilizing impacts of third-party actors that could exploit regional instability for their own benefit.

While Saudi-Iranian rapprochement could lead to reduced conflict in certain hotspots, it also signals a shift in Middle Eastern alliances that might cause concern among traditional allies, such as the United States. Saudi Arabia’s increasing openness to diplomacy with Iran may reflect a diversification of its strategic alliances and a recalibration of its foreign policy goals, which had previously relied heavily on Western backing. This diplomatic shift could influence the United States’ presence and its traditional policy stances in the Gulf.

This visit also underscores China’s rising influence as a diplomatic mediator in the Middle East. The 2023 peace agreement, which China brokered, revealed a new alignment in the global power structure where non-Western states like China play a significant role in fostering regional peace and stability. If Saudi Arabia and Iran continue down this path, the region may experience a period of "multilateral balancing," with both countries seeking a middle ground to manage their interests without a single, dominant international actor.

Potential Areas of Cooperation

Yemen Conflict: The war in Yemen remains a significant humanitarian crisis and an ongoing battleground for Saudi-Iranian influence. Improved military ties could lead to constructive dialogue on Yemen, where Iran has supported the Houthis and Saudi Arabia has backed the internationally recognized government & southern forces. The two nations may explore options for reducing hostilities or finding a negotiated settlement that reduces suffering and stabilizes the region.

Maritime Security and Counterterrorism: Saudi Arabia and maybe Iran share a vested interest in protecting their maritime boundaries and countering piracy and smuggling networks. Enhanced communication between their militaries may lead to collaborative approaches to securing strategic waterways, such as the Strait of Hormuz, which is essential for global energy supplies.

Countering Extremist Groups: Saudi Arabia is threatened by extremist groups, although historically, each has accused the other of supporting terrorism in the region. With open dialogue, there may be opportunities for intelligence-sharing or other forms of cooperation that strengthen domestic and regional security efforts against these threats.

Despite the promising developments, significant challenges remain. Both Saudi Arabia and Iran have deep-seated ideological and political differences that have fueled rivalries for decades. Mutual distrust remains a fundamental obstacle to meaningful collaboration. Furthermore, any indications of support for the Houthi movement in Yemen or Iran's involvement in Syria could reignite tensions. As such, while this diplomatic visit is a positive step, sustainable peace and cooperation require ongoing commitments and transparency.

The high-level Saudi military delegation’s visit to Iran represents a historical milestone and signals a new era of diplomatic engagement. While it is premature to predict long-term outcomes, the implications of such cooperation have the potential to reshape the security and diplomatic landscape of the Gulf and broader Middle East. If Saudi Arabia and Iran can leverage their military dialogue to achieve de-escalation in key conflict areas like Yemen, they may set a foundation for broader regional stability.

Nevertheless, success will depend on their ability to address mutual concerns transparently, navigate ideological differences, and maintain the momentum achieved thus far. For the global community, particularly Western allies, this shift underscores the evolving balance of power and the need to adapt to a Middle East where regional actors increasingly pursue independent, pragmatic diplomacy in the pursuit of stability.

So what's the impact of Saudi-Iranian Rapprochement on Southern Yemen’s Independence Aspirations

The recent warming of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, marked by a high-profile Saudi military visit to Iran, carries profound implications for the Middle East, especially in regions like Yemen, where external powers have long played influential roles. For Southern people' advocating for independence, these developments could both offer opportunities and raise challenges. 

Historically, the region has been a primary battleground for Saudi-Iranian rivalry, with each side supporting opposing factions. Southern area, represented by the Southern Transitional Council (STC), has sought independence, positioning itself as a pro-coalition and anti-Houthi force. With diplomatic doors opening between Saudi Arabia and Iran, there could be a push for de-escalation in Yemen, redirecting resources away from prolonged conflict.

If Saudi-Iranian rapprochement reduces hostilities, it could create a more stable environment, potentially leading to renewed peace talks that include Southern people voices. This diplomatic climate may provide Southerners with an avenue to formally advocate for its self-determination goals, pushing its independence cause as part of a broader peace settlement.

Southern people historical and cultural ties with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries could position the South as a unique ally. Given that Saudi Arabia is recalibrating its foreign relations, it may see value in strengthening ties with regions that align with its long-term goals. The South’s alignment with Saudi objectives, such as countering Houthi influence, could make it an appealing partner in a post-conflict Yemen.

Saudi Arabia might view a cooperative, independent South as a strategic buffer against Iranian influence in the north. Given this potential, Riyadh could diplomatically back Southern people' quest for independence to ensure a favorable ally along its southern borders.

Despite potential support, Saudi Arabia may remain cautious about an outright endorsement of Southern independence. Iran, on the other hand, might see a united Yemen under Houthi control as advantageous. Therefore, while Saudi-Iranian talks might reduce immediate conflict. 

As Saudi Arabia and Iran work towards stabilization, international focus could shift towards reconstruction and economic recovery in Yemen. The South could leverage this opportunity to attract investment and support from the GCC, maintain itself as a peaceful and strategically vital region. This could boost the South’s economy, strengthen its governance structures, and enhance its case for independence.

Southern people' appeal to the international community, particularly Europe and the U.S., could be bolstered if it maintain itself as a stable, cooperative state, promoting maritime security and serving as a counter-terrorism ally. Stability in the South would align with Western and GCC interests, potentially fostering a coalition that supports its path to independence.

While Saudi-Iranian rapprochement could lead to new diplomatic channels and reduce direct conflict, South’s independence aspirations will ultimately hinge on aligning its goals with broader international interests. The South’s strategy may need to pivot towards fostering economic ties, securing diplomatic recognition, and keeping itself as a stabilizing force in the region.

In the short term, this Saudi-Iranian thaw provides South with a  strategic opening to advocate for its rights for independence. By maintain positioning itself as a reliable ally for the GCC and a force for stability, the South can make a stronger case for its aspirations, aligning its independence goals with regional security and economic priorities.