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The South Caught Between Two Fires: Foreign Interventions and Repression – Will It Knock on the Door of International Legitimacy and Approach Reclaiming Its Global Seat?

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Aden | Special | Ain Al-Janoub. 

Amid escalating violations, accumulating scenes of repression, and the refusal of de facto authorities, the Southern issue is re-emerging to impose itself on the political discussion table. It is no longer just a lingering internal file, but an issue carrying legal and political dimensions that transcend borders and touch the very structure of the international system represented by the United Nations and its major institutions, led by the UN Security Council.

Discussing the possibility of the South returning to its position within the international system is not merely an emotional proposition or a reflection of popular anger; it is linked to a complex set of legal and political determinants. Since the end of the Cold War, the international system has become more cautious regarding the re-demarcation of states or the recognition of new entities, especially amid fears of opening the floodgates to conflicts and secessions. However, this caution does not mean change is impossible; rather, it makes it conditional upon exceptional circumstances related to the availability of a clear popular will, the existence of a unified political representation, and the ability to impose a de facto reality in a manner that gains gradual regional and international recognition.

In this context, the Southern issue possesses several elements of strength, most notably the historical narrative of a former state and a political experience existing prior to the unification, in addition to a growing sense of discrimination and marginalization among a wide segment of the population. However, these elements, despite their importance, are not enough alone to convince the international community to reconsider the existing legal status. The world does not deal solely with the justice of causes, but with the balance of interests, geopolitical complexities, and regional stability calculations.

Hence, any talk of reclaiming a seat at the United Nations or seeking recognition within the UN Security Council passes first through the gateway of international recognition. This cannot be achieved unless several basic conditions are met, including the existence of a clear political entity that enjoys internal consensus and presents itself as a reliable partner in maintaining security and stability, rather than a new source of threat. Furthermore, the support of active regional powers plays a decisive role, as no emerging entity can bypass the positions of influential countries in its surroundings, let alone the necessity of gaining the support of major powers holding veto power within the Security Council.

On the other hand, the continuation of repression and violations, if documented professionally and systematically, may constitute an important pressure card used to reintroduce the issue in international forums—not only from a political angle but also from a human rights and humanitarian perspective. Modern history shows that some issues which seemed impossible at their onset managed to find their way to international recognition when accompanied by major shifts in the balance of power or escalating global public opinion pressure.

Nevertheless, the greatest challenge remains internal. Any fragmentation of Southern forces and the multiplicity of projects and visions weaken the ability to present a unified and convincing discourse. The world does not deal with scattered entities, but with clear projects capable of speaking with one voice and providing a coherent vision for the future of the state, its form, its political system, and its foreign relations.

Therefore, returning to a recognized international position is not merely a decision to be made, but a long and complex path that begins internally before reaching the outside. It is a path that requires rebuilding trust, unifying ranks, and formulating a comprehensive national project capable of addressing the world in the language of interests and the logic of a state, rather than through reactions. Within this equation, the question remains open: Is the South today closer to fulfilling these conditions, or is it still in the stage of searching for its political self? By reflecting on current events and previous narratives, it can be said that the South possesses many merits; it lacks only the prevention of regional interventions hindering the path of the Southern cause. All the components are present, and nothing remains but the international recognition that the Southern people await with great impatience.